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Econometric assessment
The theme of econometric assessment focuses on the modelling and evaluation of natural resources, including food and energy. We cover a wide range of topics such as climate change, crop yield, trade, energy demand, energy efficiency, innovation, food systems, commodity markets, biodiversity, and climate change and health impacts. Our offer of methodologies is equally diverse, from both the micro- and the macro-econometric advanced set of tools, and big data techniques.
Our team is at the cutting edge of the application of advanced macro- and micro-econometric tools in the natural resource academic community such as structural vector autoregressive models (VARs), panel data econometric models, quasi-experimental methods, such as change–in–changes and synthetic control method, and machine learning techniques. We have a track record in the impact and economic assessment of energy efficiency measures such as those introduced by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero.
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Research areas
Our research is diverse, ranging from assessing energy efficiency policies focusing on decarbonisation within the net zero strategy, to assessing different implications of climate change, including crop yields, food systems, natural resources and health related dimensions.
Impact and economic analysis of energy policies
This area focuses on the impact and economic assessment of policies, in particular energy efficiency schemes. Related work includes contributions to:
Impact of climate change on food and agriculture
This area focuses on assessing the impact of climatic factors on crop yields, both in terms of short-run fluctuations and long-run patterns. Research has been funded by the UK Energy System Centre Phase 3, on Impacts of Energy Systems on Water, Land and Materials. Related work includes:
Global resource use change
This area is focused on the assessment of global resource use change in an integrated system of food and energy demand. Research has been funded by the Supergen Bioenergy Hub for the project of Global land use implications in a demand-driven food and decarbonised energy system, GlobalFEEDS (UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources and UCL Energy Institute in collaboration with the University of Southampton). This work has quantified global land use associated with agricultural production and a decarbonized energy system, and the implications for biodiversity conservation, within a harmonised food and bioenergy sector. Moreover, this research is expanding towards the assessment of global water use, within an integrated system of food and energy demand.
Impacts of green futures
This area focuses on understanding the impact of green future in different dimensions. For instance, we focus on assessing the relationship between the global electric power sector and biodiversity, and how a shift to non-fossil sources could help contain threats to biodiversity. A related study can be found at:
Energy demand and commodity markets
This area focuses on understanding industrial energy demand within different sub-sectors. Related studies can be found as follows:
Climate change and costs of associated health impacts
This area is focused on the economic costs of health implications induced by climate change. Research is funded by the EU Horizon Health for the project of Climate Action to Advance Healthy Societies in Europe (CATALYSE).
Research stories
Assessing the impact of UK Government energy and climate policies
We have been evaluating policies implemented on the back of the Climate Change Action, the Paris Agreement and the Net Zero Strategy. We have contributed to the impact and economic assessment of policies focused on energy efficiency and low carbon heat measures, within the net zero strategy. These contributions can be found under the following initiatives:
- Energy efficiency policy in the non-domestic sector (gov.uk)
- Climate change agreements (gov.uk)
- Energy efficiency and low carbon heat policy, as part of the Green Economic Stimulus’ programmes which focused on promoting energy efficiency and low carbon heat measures, and supporting post-pandemic economic recovery (gov.uk)
Assessing the impact of climate change on food and agriculture
We have focused on assessing the global implications of climate change in terms of agriculture and food security. A relevant work, led by UCL, has contributions from three leading UK teams with expertise in the food and environmental area: Southampton University (Felix Eigenbrod and Robert Holland), UCL (Paolo Agnolucci, Vincenzo De Lipsis, Paul Ekins and Chrysanthi Rapti) and University of Edinburgh (Peter Alexander). The study is published in Nature Food (read the Nature Food article) and the finding summarised in our news story 'Climate change will hit food supplies in the poorest countries hardest'.
Recent projects
- GlobalFEEDS project - a collaboration between the UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources and the UCL Energy Institute in collaboration with the University of Southampton). Learn more about the project.
- Impact of climate change on agriculture and food: UK Energy System Centre Phase 3 (RCUK), on Impacts of Energy Systems on Water, Land and Materials. Learn more about the project.
- CATALYSE project (in collaboration with a number of leading institutions). Learn more about the project.
Doctoral research (PhD)
Our doctoral researchers cover a broad range of topics in the broader context of our UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources vision and themes, looking at factors related to both the physical environment and people.
Doctoral research relating to Econometric assessment
- Kentaro Mayr – 'At the Cross-Roads of Computer Science, Econometrics, and Energy Consumption: Implementing Innovative Methods in Ex-Ante and Ex-Post Policy Evaluation'.
- Anwar Gasim – 'Energy price reform in Saudi Arabia: Understanding the impacts and the factors that influence outcomes'.
Researchers
Paolo Agnolucci
Professor
n.ameli@ucl.ac.uk
Chrysanthi Rapti
Research Associate
m.grubb@ucl.ac.uk
Abraham Lartey
Research Fellow
a.lartey@ucl.ac.uk
Hamid Nejadghorban
Research Fellow
n.nejadghorban@ucl.ac.uk
Aleksei Egorov
PhD student
a.egorov@ucl.ac.uk
Kentaro Mayr
PhD student
k.f.mayr@ucl.ac.uk
Anwar Gasim
PhD student
anwar.gasim.19@ucl.ac.uk
Arianna Buratto
PhD student
arianna.buratto.15i@ucl.ac.uk