Publications

Discover the reports, research and papers of the ECRC and ENSIS

Paper of the month

Uncertainty in regional temperatures inferred from sparse global observations: Application to a probabilistic classification of El Niño

By Maryam Ilyas, Chris Brierley and Serge Guillas (2017)

This work uses a novel statistical approach to fill in the missing data in the instrumental global surface temperature record. Whilst that in itself has been done before, the new approach provides proper quantification of the uncertainty in the local temperatures. To demonstrate the impact of the in-filling uncertainties, we looked that Niño 3.4 region, used to classify El Niño (see picture above). In the recent record, we are confident whether it was an El Niño (red), La Nina (blue) or a Neutral state (green and cyan).

However, just after World War II and before 1920 there are many years where the temperature record is ambiguous (pink) and we can't tell whether it is was an El Niño or an La Niña. The global ensemble of surface temperatures is freely downable from the Oasis HUB.

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Reports

ECRC Reports

Other reports

Research papers

• Kernan, M; Allott, TEH; (1998) Spatial variability of nitrate concentration in lakes in Snowdonia, North Wales. (ECRC Research Paper 18 )
• Curtis, CJ; Whyatt, JD; Metcalfe, SE; Allott, TEH; Harriman, R; (1998) Assessing the impact of international emissions reduction scenarios to combat the acidification of freshwaters in Great Britain with the First-order Acidity Balance (FAB) model and the Hull Acid Rain Model (HARM). (ECRC Research Paper 17 , pp. pp. 1-22 )
• Curtis, CJ; Allott, TEH; Bird, D; Hall, J; Harriman, R; Helliwell, R; Kernan, M; Reynolds, B; Ullyett, J; (1998) Critical loads of sulphur and nitrogen for freshwaters in Great Britain and assessment of deposition reduction requirements with the First-order Acidity Balance (FAB) model. (ECRC Research Paper 16 , pp. pp. 1-28)
• Tenner, C; (1996) The impact of carp stocking on fresh water Sites of Special Scientific Interest in southern England. (ECRC Research Paper 14 )
• Goldsmith, B; (1996) A rationale for the use of artificial substrata to enhance diatom-based monitoring of eutrophication in lowland rivers. (ECRC Research Paper 13 )
• Curtis, CJ; Allott, TEH; Battarbee, RW; Harriman, R; Hall, J; (1996) Screening and validation of the empirical maps for UK freshwater critical loads. (ECRC Research Paper 12 )
• Battarbee, RW; Allott, TEH; Bull, K; Christie, AEG; Curtis, C; Flower, RJ; Hall, J; Harriman, R; Jenkins, A; Juggins, S; Kreiser, A; Metcalfe, SE; Ormerod, SJ; Patrick, ST; (1994) Critical loads of acid deposition for UK freshwaters: Report of the Critical Loads Advisory Group, sub-group on Freshwaters, for the UK Department of the Environment. (ECRC Research Paper 11 )
• Battarbee, RW; Allott, TEH; Bull, K; Jenkins, A; Hall, J; Harriman, R; Juggins, S; Kreiser, A; Ormerod, SJ; Patrick, ST; Shaw, C; Weatherley, N; (1993) Critical loads and acid deposition for UK freshwaters (summary): a report to the Department of the Environment from the Critical Loads Advisory Group for Freshwaters. (ECRC Research Paper 10 )
• Rose, NL; (1993) An assessment of the potential of the United Kingdom Acid Waters Monitoring Network to monitor the impact of atmospheric trace metals and persistent organic compounds on freshwaters. (ECRC Research Paper 9 )
• Flower, RJ; Jones, VJ; Appleby, PG; Richardson, N; Rippey, B; Rose, NL; Stevenson, AC; (1993) The extent of regional acidification in north-west Scotland: palaeoecological evidence. (ECRC Research Paper 8 )
• Jones, VJ; Battarbee, RW; Appleby, PG; Richardson, N; Rippey, B; Rose, NL; Stevenson, AC; (1993) Acidification in the Cairngorms and Lochnagar: a palaeoecological assessment. (ECRC Research Paper 7 )
• Juggins, S; (1992) The relationship between epilithic diatom assemblages and water chemistry in Scottish streams. (ECRC Research Paper 6 )
• Battarbee, RW; Allott, TEH; Birks, HJB; Bull, K; Flower, RJ; Jenkins, A; Hall, J; Harriman, R; Juggins, S; Kreiser, A; Ormerod, SJ; Patrick, ST; Rose, N; Weatherley, N; (1992) Critical loads and acid deposition for UK freshwaters: an interim report to the DoE from the Critical Loads Advisory Group (Freshwaters sub-group). (ECRC Research Paper 5 )
• Flower, RJ; Appleby, PG; (1992) Conservation of Moroccan wetlands and palaeoecological assessment of recent environmental change: some preliminary results with special reference to coastal sites. (ECRC Research Paper 4 )
• Kreiser, AM; Anderson, NJ; Appleby, PG; Battarbee, RW; Patrick, ST; Rippey, B; Rose, NL; (1992) A palaeolimnological study of the water quality of lakes in the Vosges Mountains of France. (ECRC Research Paper 3 )
• Battarbee, RW; Kreiser, AM; Harriman, R; Bull, K; Jenkins, A; Ormerod, SJ; (1992) The distribution of nitrate in UK surface waters and its implication for calculating critical loads: a preliminary assessment. (ECRC Research Paper 2 )
• Flower, RJ; Rose, NL; Patrick, ST; Appleby, PG; Rippey, B; Stevenson, AC; Battarbee, RW; (1992) A palaeoecological assessment of the acidification status of lakes in the north-west and west of Ireland. (ECRC Research Paper 1)

ENSIS Reports

• Hughes, MJ; Scoping project to investigate options for linking the standing waters database and the Lakes Inventory. ENSIS Ltd. ECRC
• Shilland, EM; Goldsmith, BJ; Hatton-Ellis, T; (2017) Ecological Surveys of Welsh Lakes 2016. ENSIS Ltd. ECRC
• Battarbee, RW; Curtis, CJ; Shilland, EM; (2011) The Round Loch of Glenhead: Recovery from acidification, climate change monitoring and future threats. ENSIS Ltd. ECRC
• Bennion, H; Burgess, A; Roe, K; Yang, H; Thomas, R; (2010) Palaeoecological study of Llyn Padarn. (CCW Contract Science Report 918 ). ENSIS Ltd. ECRC
• Simpson, GL; Turner, S; Brooks, S; Greenwood, M; Yang, H; Monteith, D; Patrick, S; (2009) Acid Waters macroInvertebrate Status Tool. ENSIS Ltd. ECRC
• Simpson, G; (2008) Surface Water Temperature Archive for UK freshwater and estuarine sites. ENSIS Ltd. ECRC
• Monteith, D; Simpson, GL; (2007) Macroinvertebrate classification diagnostic tool development. (SNIFFER WFD60 ). ENSIS Ltd. ECRC
• Burgess, A; Goldsmith, B; Hatton-Ellis, TW; (2006) Site Condition Assessments of Welsh SAC and SSSI Standing Water Features. (CCW Contract Science Report 705 ). The Countryside Council for Wales
• Goldsmith, B; Bennion, H; Hughes, M; Jones, V; Rose, C; Simpson, G; (2005) Integrating Habitats Directive and Water Framework Directive Monitoring: Baseline Survey of Natura 2000 Standing Water Habitats in Wales. (CCW Contract Science Report 704 ). The Countryside Council for Wales
• Goldsmith, B; Shilland, EM; (2003) Sediment Assessment of the Barrow Reservoirs. (ENSIS Reports ). ENSIS Ltd. ECRC

Miscellaneous Reports

• Sayer, CD; Jackson, MJ; Simpson, GL; Waldock, MJ; Reed, J; Henderson, ACG; Boyle, JF; (2001) Tributyltin (TBT) and the decline of the Norfolk Broads.(ECRC Research Report )
• Stevenson, AC; Juggins, S; Birks, HJB; Anderson, DS; Anderson, NJ; Battarbee, RW; Berge, F; Davis, RB; Flower, RJ; Haworth, EY; Jones, VJ; Kingston, JC; Kreiser, AM; Line, JM; Munro, MAR; Renberg, I; (1991) The Surface Waters Acidification Project Palaeolimnology Programme: modern diatom/lake-water chemistry data-set. (ENSIS )
• Hughes, M; Goldsmith, B; Denaby Ings lake sediment sampling report for IMC Group. (ENSIS )
• Flower, R; Beebee, TJC; The recent palaeolimnology of Woolmer Pond, Hampshire, with special reference to the documentary history and distribution of the Natterjack toad, Bufo calamita L. (ENSIS )
• Fletcher, C; Heavy metal analysis of lake sediments as an indicator of enviromental contamination: and example from Round Loch of Glenhead, South West Scotland. (ECRC Research Report )
• Battarbee, RW; Anderson, NJ; Appleby, PG; Flower, RJ; Fritz, SC; Haworth, EY; Higgitt, S; Jones, VJ; Kreiser, AM; Munro, MAR; Natkanski, J; Oldfield, F; Patrick, ST; Richardson, NG; Rippey, B; Stevenson, AC; (1988) Lake acidification in the United Kingdom 1800-1986.