Policy Options to Reduce the Burden of Disease in England: A Dynamic Microsimulation

In the next few years, population ageing and the associated burden of disease will be one of the most critical health issues for advanced economies around the world. To obtain precise forecasts of the levels of the future burden of disease and to establish adequate policy responses, it is paramount to have tools that allow estimating future prevalence of chronic conditions and disabilities.

Fulfilling this task requires sophisticated and complex modelling methods that take into account the evolution of health, economic and demographic variables at individual and cohort levels. Microsimulation models (MSMs) have emerged as a useful tool to answer these questions. Among this class of models, the Future Elderly Model (FEM), using the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) data, has displayed the potential for microsimulations to help shape policy in the U.S.  and internationally, as modified versions of FEM have been employed in other countries and to investigate the future of Long-Term Care in Europe.

This project builds on an ongoing collaboration between Conti, Atella and Piano Mortari in which we have used the EUFEM model for Germany, combined with a life course obesity model (developed by Diana Sonntag), to estimate the returns to an early nutritional intervention in Germany. Our objective is to add England to the EUFEM model using the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) within this project, and to apply to subsequent funding for future applications. 

Area

Economics

UCL leads

• Professor Gabriella Conti, Department of Economics