War in Ukraine: UCL academics provide expert comment and updates

UCL's School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES), which is one of the UK's largest institutions for research and teaching on Russia, the Baltics, and Central, Eastern and South-East Europe, has collated expert commentary and resources surrounding the ongoing war in Ukraine, which are available in the SSEES on Ukraine: Resource Hub here. 

Based in the Department of Political Science at UCL, the Conflict & Change group, founded in 2015, contributes to the scientific understanding of political violence. They have collated their thoughts here, on the war in Ukraine to try and make sense of the tragic events by drawing on research they have done in and on Russia and Ukraine, on conflict dynamics, and on foreign policy and international organisations.

Experts from across UCL have also shared their thoughts and analyses on the UCL Europe Blog here and here.

Here, we feature the work of UCL colleagues across multiple disciplines, who are providing critical commentary across the globe about the war in Ukraine and its impact through numerous appearances on TV radio, print and online news sources.

For information on how we are supporting staff and students affected by the war in Ukraine, please visit this page.

• Russian elite surprised by Ukraine invasion: “We know that many members of the Russian elite were shocked by the 24 February invasion” and that many “thought that Vladimir Putin was engaging in brinksmanship, rather than sincerely preparing for war," said Professor Ben Noble (School of Slavonic & East European Studies). Read: Newsweek

• Putin’s Kremlin regime ‘under serious threat for first time’: Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) believes the war in Ukraine has “turned into a disaster” and “every is looking for other people to blame”. Read: Mirror

• Putin: The indispensable tsar: Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) discusses Putin’s carefully crafted image and how his attitudes to both the Ukraine and the west have defined his rule. Listen: BBC Radio 4’s ‘Putin’ (from 2 mins 26 secs)

• Do a majority of Russians support the Ukraine war?: Honorary Senior Research Associate Vladimir Pastukhov (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) says that the Russian people “don’t want to hear any information which says something different than propaganda,” about the war in Ukraine. Listen: BBC World Service Radio’s ‘Newsday’ (from 29 mins 48 secs)

• Opinion: Russia’s best and brightest are fleeing Putin: The Russians with the most talent, resources and skills are heading overseas while they still can, says Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies). Read: Spectator, More: UCL News

• Opinion: A circular firing squad is forming in the Kremlin and the guns are pointed at each other: Vladimir Putin's regime looks under serious threat for the first time since he came to power, writes Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies). Read: Mail Online, More: UCL News

• The father of Russia’s Oligarchs won’t be the last to go: Anatoly Chubais has left Russia behind in the highest-level defection so far, but arguable to most expected of the high-level defections, says Dr Ben Noble (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies). Read: Bloomberg, More: Washington Post

• Russian security council expected to show loyalty and support to Putin no matter what: The way Putin treated his advisors ahead of invading Ukraine was like a “tsar at his court rather than any kind of a consultative government,” says Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies). Listen: BBC Radio 4’s ‘The Court of Putin’ (from 3 mins 2 secs)

• Is there a stalemate between Ukraine and Russia?: Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) says there is “an overall stalemate with all kinds of fighting happening along the various frontlines.” Listen: BBC World Service Radio’s ‘Newshour’ (from 14 mins 25 secs)

• Why Putin keeps his family a secret: Dr Ben Noble (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) says Putin’s blackout on any mention of his family “couldn’t be a bigger contrast with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky”. Read: Mirror

• Getting inside the mind of Vladimir Putin: Honorary Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies) describes how Vladimir Putin views Ukraine, “Not an independent sovereign nation, but a treacherous Russian territory that has betrayed its Motherland and must be punished.” Read: Mail Online

• Calls for creation of new international tribunal to investigate Putin: Professor Philippe Sands (UCL Laws) says there is a gap in the crimes being investigated and the Crime of Aggression can’t currently be investigated by the international criminal court. Listen: BBC Radio 4’s ‘Newshour’ (from 19 mins 15 secs)

• Supporting displaced Ukrainian academics: UCL is providing £250,000, in conjunction with a matching philanthropic donation, to create a fellowship for academics displaced by the conflict in Ukraine. Read: The Tab

• Putin wants to be remembered as restoring the Russian Empire: When Vladimir Putin talks with historians, he always asks how history might view him, says Honorary Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies). Read: Evening Standard

• What does the “Z” mean?: Professor Aglaya Snetkov (UCL School of Slavic and Eastern European Studies) says while many supporters of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine display the letter Z because it’s "intimidating and very powerful," that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re using it as a fascist symbol. Read: BBC News Serbia

• Putin’s war hits NHS front line: The NHS is facing greater pressure due to Ukrainian refugees arriving in the UK and ensuring accurate health records of those entering the country should be the “highest possible priority” says Professor David Katz (UCL Infection & Immunity). Read: Express

• Over 1000 people feared dead in Mariupol theatre bombing: Dr Aglaya Snetkov (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) discusses the current negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and the prospects for a ceasefire. Listen: BBC World Service Radio’s ‘Newsday’ (from 12 mins 9 secs)

• What could a peace deal look like between Russia and Ukraine?: Dr Aglaya Snetkov (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) and Dr Julie Norman (UCL Political Science) discuss what compromises might be possible and what would be required for peace to be brokered between Russia and Ukraine. Listen: BBC Radio 4’s ‘The Briefing Room’ (from 7 mins 51)

• Russia’s fake claim about Ukrainian bioweapons: Dr Rasmus Nilsson (UCL School of Slavonic & Eastern European Studies) says the claim plays into Russia’s story about Ukraine being a rogue state. Some media in America, he adds, seem to adopt any narrative “that challenges those established by the current US administration". Read: iNews

• Opinion: Is Russia becoming a dictatorship?: Putin may want to be a modern-day Soviet commissar but the rise of the internet and the willingness of the Russian people to challenge the state means it prove to be very difficult, says Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies). Read: Spectator

• Opinion: The West needs to prepare for guerrilla war in Ukraine: The West has pledged its support to Ukraine with promises of weapons and other aid but now it needs to consider exactly what this means, says Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies). Read: Spectator

• Opinion: Talk of a diplomatic solution between Russia and Ukraine is in the air: Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) explains what a deal to end the bloodshed may look like. Read: Mail Online

• Could Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fuel the spread of Covid: Professor Francois Balloux (UCL Genetics Institute) comments on how the war in Ukraine could have an impact on rates of Covid-19 and other infectious diseases. Read: Evening Standard

• Russian attack on military base may be sending a message to Nato: Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) comments on Russia’s attack on a military base near the Polish border, saying Vladimir Putin is sending a message to Nato, signalling frustration about arms shipments from western countries. Listen: BBC Radio 2’s ‘Dr Rangan Chatterjee’ (from 58 mins)

• How Putin could be removed from power – and who would replace him: It’s hard to envisage Russia’s leader stepping down, but a coup from within the corridors of the Kremlin may force the issue, writes Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies). Read: Telegraph (£), More: Telegraph (£) (2)

• What Putin did before he came to power: Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) helps explore Putin’s past, where he’s come from, what he’s lived through and what he’s done. Listen: BBC Radio 4’s ‘The Moth’ (from 2 mins 15 secs)

• Potential repercussions for Russian TV protestor: Dr Brian Klaas (UCL School of European Languages, Culture & Society) said that the “consequences will be severe” for Marina Ovsyannikova after she protested live on air. Read: Express

• Who is Segei Lavrov?: Dr Ben Noble (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) questions why Lavrov hasn’t resigned and says he has been a “decidedly secondary character” for “quite a while”. Read: Evening Standard

• How Putin is controlling the narrative over his invasion of Ukraine: Prior to the invasion not much effort was put into preparing the Russian public for the war but they’ve since “ramped it up massively,” says Dr Aglaya Snetkov (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies). Read: i News

• Why are women leading Putin’s propaganda war?: Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) said that propaganda roles may have been left to women as “they are less prestigious than the big internal jobs.” Read: Express, More: Telegraph (£)

• Can we trust polls coming out of Russia?: Dr Katerina Tertytchnaya (UCL Political Science) discusses the quality of polling information coming out of Russia and whether it is representative of public opinion. Listen: BBC Radio 4’s ‘The Briefing Room’ (from 14 mins 58 secs)

• Britain must heed the lessons of history and let in Ukrainian refugees: Academics from multiple institutions, including Professor Heather Jones (UCL History), have called on the government to relax the rules of entry for Ukrainian refugees who are “fleeing from an unlawful war of aggression”.  Read: Telegraph (£)

• How Russian mothers could change the course of the war: Soldier’s mothers are “bastions of civil society in Russia, and they tend to atrophy and then regalvanise every time there’s a war, making them a very effective pain the Kremlin’s collective backside,” says Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European studies). Read: Telegraph (£)

• Vladimir Putin’s goodbye will be a long one: Dr Ben Noble (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) said that there is no modern equivalent of the politburo, which enabled Nikita Khrushchev to be removed in 1964. Read: Bloomberg, More: Japan Times, Washington Post

• Vladimir Putin's dream has become a nightmare: How long before Putin's generals start thinking the only way out of this mess is to get rid of the man who created it, asks Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies). Read: Mail Online, More: UCL News

• UCL announces support for students amid Ukraine war: UCL President & Provost Dr Michael Spence announced a package of support for students from affected regions, while also calling for tolerance. Read: FT (£)

• Why Putin is now considering a peace treaty: Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) said that Putin’s plan to claim Kyiv within two days and the rest of Ukraine within two weeks has descended into a “nightmare”. Read: Express

• Why the Z has become a symbol of support for the Russian invasion: The spread of “Z” in Russia is not just due to the spontaneity of social media,” warns Dr Aglaya Snetkov (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies). “It has also been driven by the regime”. Read: BBC Mundo (Spanish), More: BBC News, BBC Korean, BBC News Turkey, CBC News, Listen: BBC Radio 4’s ‘PM’ (from 53 mins 58 secs)

• Why are anti-war protests continuing in Russia?: Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) says that Russia is still coming to terms with what has happened in Ukraine but there is an encouraging current of people who are coming out to protest despite the repercussions. Listen: BBC Radio 4’s ‘Today Programme’ (from 1 hour 54 mins 13 secs)

• What is Vladimir Putin’s next move?: With Putin’s troops bogged down in firefights and Russia increasingly facing economic collapse as a result of sanctions, Dr Ben Noble (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) discusses what his next move might be. Read: Mirror

• Could failure topple another Russian government?: Dr Ben Noble (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) is “sceptical of claims that Putin will soon be deposed in a palace coup – or that the existing elite could be removed by mass protests.” Read: FT (£)

• Russia under Putin: Dr Katerina Tertychnaya (UCL Political Science) speaks about Putin’s popularity and a turning point in Russian popular protest. Listen: BBC World Service Radio’s ‘The History Hour’ (from 37 mins 39 secs)

• US denounces ‘increasingly brutal’ Russian invasion: Professor Philippe Sands (UCL Law) discusses NATOs stance on a no-fly zone over Ukraine and the plight of children suffering from cancer in the war-torn country. Listen: BBC World Service Radio’s ‘Weekend’ (from 18 secs)

• Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos eye Russia’s place in space: Professor Serge Plattard (UCL Office of the Vice-Provost (Research)) says there is a risk that Russia will turn towards China for a space alliance, with its own stations and lunar programmes. Read: Telegraph (£)

• What does big oil’s Russia exit mean from climate change?: Shell PLC and TotalEnergies SE are among European companies that may see the crisis as an opportunity to expand their low-carbon investments, said Professor Michael Grubb (UCL Bartlett School of Environment, Energy & Resources). Read: Wall Street Journal

• Possible ways to end the war in Ukraine: Dr Aglaya Snetkov (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) analyses how to end the invasion, from diplomacy to assassination. Read: Mirror  , More: BBC Radio 4’s ‘PM’ (from 6 mins 16 secs)

• Why is Russia sheeling the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant: Professor Andrew Wilson (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) said that the attack on the nuclear power station could be an attempt to cut off the Ukrainian population from their services. Read: Mirror

• Could Putin end up at a tribunal?: Legal experts, including Professor Philippe Sands (UCL Laws) are demanding that the UK and other countries join Ukraine to grant jurisdiction to a dedicated criminal tribunal to investigate both the perpetrators of the crime of aggression and those complicit in that crime. Read: Mail Online, More: Evening Standard, Le Point (French), Scotsman, Herald

• Cyber warfare between Russia and Ukraine: Professor Madeline Carr (UCL Computer Science) discusses how cyberattacks and information warfare can be used between Russia and Ukraine, saying that Russia is the cybercrime capital of the world, but it can be difficult to distinguish between private and government actors. Listen: BBC Radio 4 'Inside Science' (from 6 mins 49 secs)

• Is the Russian army targeting Ukrainian civilians?: Professor Philippe Sands (UCL Laws) says that, from day one, the “consistent and regular reports of civilian objectives being targeted” are on a scale that suggests that this is maybe intentional. Read: BBC News

• Opinion: Putin’s use of military force is a crime of aggression: The Russian leader’s invasion of Ukraine poses a grave challenge, and one that sanctions and financial measures alone cannot address, says Professor Philippe Sands (UCL Laws). Read: FT, More: UCL News, Guardian, Mail Online, City A.M.

• Opinion: Russian opposition to Ukraine invasion is giving Putin cause for alarm: What domestic opposition is Russia's political leadership facing following its invasion of Ukraine? Dr Ben Noble (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) writes about this, and what it means for Vladimir Putin. Read: The Conversation, More: UCL News

• Opinion: Poland and Hungary toe EU line in face of Russian aggression: It has suddenly become harder for both countries to reject union norms on rule of law, says Professor Ronan McCrea (UCL Laws): Read: Irish Times, More: UCL News

• Putin’s past actions point to his sharpening authoritarianism: There is debate over here the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a foreseeable event that could have been predicted but Dr Ben Noble (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) says that “it wasn’t obvious”. Read: Coda, More: ASTV (Spanish)

• UCL helps with donations for Ukraine: UCL’s School of Slavonic & East European Studies, alongside SOAS World Development Society are organising a donation drive to Lviv, Ukraine. Read: My London News, More: Country Living

• Putin’s miscalculation in Ukraine could lead to his downfall: Politically speaking, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine did not make sense, and could in fact come to represent the “start of the end of Putinism”, says Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies). Read: New Statesman

• Who is in Putin’s inner circle and running the war?: Dr Ben Noble and Professor Mark Galeotti (both UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) give their opinion on Putin’s loyal entourage, including Nikolai Patrushev, Alexander Bortinikov and Sergei Naryshkin. Read: BBC News

• Could the international criminal court bring Putin to justice over Ukraine?: Professor Philippe Sands (UCL Laws) has called for the creation of a dedicated international criminal tribunal to investigate Putin and his acolytes for the crime of aggression, which he believes is the offence most befitting Russia’s acts in Ukraine. Read: Guardian

• Opinion: Let us show ordinary Russians what freedom looks lik. Visa-free visits and student bursaries would undermine Putin’s police state, writes Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies). Read: Times (£), More: UCL News

• Five strategic mistakes of Putin and their main consequences for Russia: Honorary Senior Research Associate Vladimir Pastukhov (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) outlines Putin’s errors in invading Ukraine, from misjudging the potential of the Ukrainian army to underestimating the international reaction. Read: Echo of Moscow (Russian)

• Opinion: What do the people of Ukraine want?: The Ukrainian people do not want war, but the vast majority feel a strong connection to their home country, writes Professor Kristin Bakke (UCL Political Science). Read: Aftenposten (Norwegian), More: UCL News

• How to help children understand what is happening in Ukraine: “Children are constantly absorbing the things they read, see and hear and it is quite natural for them to understand the situation in Ukraine, to feel anxious and to ask questions about what is going on,” says Professor Vivian Hill (IOE, UCL’s Institute of Education & Society). Read: Journal de Montreal (French)

• How Russia made a clear violation of international law: “Having watched the missile that hit the city square in Kharkiv, there is no conceivable basis for a missile to be targeted on that building” and, as a result, it is a “war crime” says Professor Philippe Sands (UCL Laws). Listen: BBC Radio 4’s ‘Six O’Clock News’ (from 24 mins 31 secs)

• What could happen next in Ukraine?: Professor Andrew Wilson (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) answers readers’ questions about the war in Ukraine and predicts what the future might hold. Read: Mirror, More: Daily Record

• Viktor Orban has played a perfect game with Putin: “Orban is not a deep thinker but he understand where power comes from and how power in the region works, writes Dr Thomas Lorman (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies). Read: Spectator

• Opinion: A bunch of thugs so vicious they filmed themselves setting fire to a Syrian army deserter: Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) gives his opinion on the mercenary squad ‘tasked with assassinating Zelensky and 23 other Ukrainian leaders’. Read: Mail Online, More: UCL News

• Is the war with Ukraine the beginning of the end of Putinism?: Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) discusses the latest in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, what miscalculations Putin has made so far and why so many experts failed to predict the scale of the conflict. Listen: New Statesman ‘World Review’ (from start)

• Would Putin follow through with his nuclear threat?: “Putin is playing a bit on the crazy. The theory goes that if people think I am mad enough to use them then that plays to my advantage,” says Professor Andrew Wilson (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies). Read: Sun

• Could Putin be a new tsar?: Putin has regularly been referred to as a tsar but Dr Ben Noble (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) says that “Putin is the leader of a personalist authoritarian regime” and “he is a dictator”. Read: El Tiempo (Colombia)

• How Ukraine was born and its historical links with Russia: Professor Andrew Wilson (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) says that it is important to see Ukraine, both its territory and its identity, as more of a “shifting puzzle” than a coherent unit. Read: BBC Mundo (Spanish)

• Gun battles in Kyiv: Dr Julie Norman (UCL Political Science) discusses the developing situation in Ukraine, a gun battle on the streets of Kyiv and how thousands of people are trying to flee to safety. Listen: BBC World Service Radio’s ‘Weekend’ (from 8 mins 50 secs), More: BBC World Service Radio’s ‘Weekend’ (from 55 secs), BBC World Service Radio’s ‘Weekend’ (from 27 mins 35 secs)

• European and Russian scientists will not stop working together on major Mars mission: “It’s a very difficult and regrettable situation at the moment on the ground of course but in space we have very good working relationships with our Russian colleagues and that’s continuing,” says Professor Andrew Coates (UCL Space & Climate Physics). Read: Sun

• Opinion: Isolated, paranoid, deluded. But Vladimir Putin isn't a mad despot - he's evil: Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) considers Putin’s endgame and says he may be deluded about his invasion of Ukraine. Read: Mail Online, More: UCL News

• Opinion: Is Vladimir Putin mad, brilliant or somewhere in between?: After 20 years in power, Russia’s leader appears to be channelling his inner Bond villain to the extreme, says Professor Mark Galeotti (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies). Read: Telegraph (£), More: UCL News

• The history behind Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: Professor Philippe Sands (UCL Laws) says Ukraine is a “complex” country that “travels East and West” and that this “is the heart of the problem.” Listen: BBC Radio 4’s ‘Today Programme’ (from 2 hours 55 mins 13 secs)

• Kiev or Kyiv? The politics behind a war-torn name: “Kyiv is a transliteration from the letters of the Ukrainian alphabet, whereas Kiev is a transliteration from the Russian,” says Professor Andrew Wilson (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies). Read: Telegraph (£), More: Express

• How Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is likely to increase London food prices and energy bills: Professor Mark Galeotti and Professor Andrew Wilson (both UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) discuss how the situation in Ukraine is likely to hit energy prices, food prices and potentially cause cyber-attacks in London. Read: My London News

• Ukraine-Russia crisis: What’s Putin’s next move?: Honorary Senior Research Associate, Vladimir Pastukhov (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) says that Putin “has an almost religious belief of his special place in history” and “he will cook the meat on a slow fire.”Read: BBC News, More: India Today

• What happens now Russia has ‘invaded’ Ukraine?: Russian troops entering Ukraine “could be the beginning of something much larger or the peak point of something that’s been building quite a while,” says Dr Julie Norman (UCL Political Science). Read: Evening Standard, Listen: Evening Standard’s ‘The Leader’ podcast (from 1min 21 secs)

• Opinion: Russia may be about to invade Ukraine. Russians don’t want it to: Surveys show that for Putin, invading Ukraine comes with political risk at home, writes Dr Katerina Tertytchanaya (UCL Political Science), alongside academics from George Washington University, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Cornell University. Read: Washington Post, More: UCL News

• What Putin’s comically long table tells us about Russia’s inner workings: Fears about Putin getting seriously ill likely played a part in the decision to distance the leaders with a long table, according to Dr Ben Noble (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies). Read: NBC News

• For Putin, disquiet is the new quiet: Dr Ben Noble (UCL SSEES) has argued that Putin is often wrongly perceived as a “one-man show,” when many constituencies are involved. Read: Bloomberg, More: Washington Post

• Russians don’t want Putin to invade Ukraine: Surveys show that for Putin, invading Ukraine comes with political risk at home, say academics from various institutions including Dr Katerina Tertychnaya (UCL Political Science). Read: Washington Post

• Why Putin keeps his distance from world leaders: Dr Ben Noble (UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies) believes that Putin may keep a distance from other leaders as the Kremlin is nervous about the possibility of him contracting Covid – mainly due to the political fallout if he were to fall seriously ill or die. Read: Independent