New report: 2024 Election a 'final warning' as voters demand change to the status quo

Change Pending The Path to the 2024 General Election and Beyond. 

A new report by the UCL Policy Lab and More in Common has found that voters used the 2024 General Election to deliver a final warning to Britain’s political mainstream that the way Britain works needs to change and that politicians need to show more respect for ordinary people.

The report - which is the most comprehensive study of the election yet, based on polling of more than 10,000 people since polls closed and over 60 focus groups before during and after the campaign - finds that two thirds of the public think the new Labour Government has a strong mandate to bring about that change - including more than six in ten of those who backed parties other than Labour.

However, the research also identifies that the unprecedented levels of political fragmentation and high abstentionism of July’s election were driven by growing cynicism towards politics and a sense of futility that the political mainstream simply can’t deliver for ordinary people. The report suggests that 74 per cent of the public now believe that Britain is rigged to serve the rich and influential. With the public frustrated that their demands for change in the 2016 Brexit Referendum and 2019 Get Brexit done election were not fully heeded, the report warns that the core mission of the next Government must be to deliver voters expectations of change or risk facing more voters turning to populism.

Speaking ahead of the launch, Marc Stears, Director of UCL Policy Lab, said: 

"The test for the new government is clear: can they fulfil the promise of change? Across all parts of society, the electorate turned against incumbents in this election. They are fed up with a country that doesn’t work for them and with politicians that don’t appear to listen to their concerns."

"Labour can hold together its striking new electoral coalition if it makes a real difference to people’s everyday lives and if it shows them the respect they have craved for so long. If it doesn’t, then the coalition will fracture still further and the extremes could pick up the pieces. In short, delivery and connection are what the public are looking for. And that stakes are very high.”

The report also found that the NHS was a key driver of voter behaviour. With 54 per cent of the public saying that mismanagement of the NHS was the Conservative’s biggest mistake since 2019, while 46 per cent supported the Labour Party because of its policies on the NHS - the highest of any reason for voting Labour. Meanwhile, with voters impatient for change and Labour voters expecting to see it within one year of Government, it is the NHS against which people will benchmark Labour’s delivery of change - nearly two thirds of the public (63 per cent) and 70 per cent of Labour voters say that falling waiting lists will be their metric for assessing the Labour Government’s performance. 

However, on the NHS and other issues voters' expectations for change go beyond delivery. 96 per cent of the public say that respect for ordinary people is an important quality for a politician - the highest of any attribute tested. While focus group conversations informed the research, it was found that voters clearly want politicians to listen to them and their concerns. Building on earlier research from the UCL Policy Lab and More in Common, including The Respect Agenda.

Find out more about the report get in touch with the UCL Policy Lab.

Read the report in full.