The politics of our new moment

This essay was first published in Ordinary Hope: A Mission to Rebuild (Download PDF)

Speaking to the public about the state of our politics and democracy has been a sobering experience over the last few years. In focus group after focus group hearing the extent of disconnect between Westminster and the everyday concerns of the public has been both striking and depressing. In conversation after conversation, voters’ frustration at not just individuals, but a system that they felt was rigged against them is palpable - with their priorities seemingly ignored, their contributions undervalued, their country feeling increasingly broken.

It was in this context that the 2024 election became the third ‘vote to change the status quo’ that British voters have delivered in under a decade - first in the Brexit vote of 2016, then at the last General Election in 2019 and now again at the 2024 election. There is a very real risk that if change goes unheeded, more voters will follow those who decided to opt out of the political mainstream this July.

Understanding what that change looks like and how it can be delivered will be the crucial mission of this government. There is a tendency in politics to associate change, especially after an election victory with grand narratives or vivid portraits of sunlight uplands. Given the mood of the country, the politics of Obama-esque hope and change or of grandiose visions of radicalism are unlikely to land. Instead the public’s ask is both simpler and more pressing - change that is grounded in every day improvements in their day to day which makes life for them and their families that bit easier.

That demand for ‘everyday’ change is reflected in Labour’s changing voter coalition between 2019 and 2024. In 2019, Labour’s electoral coalition was more ideological, in 2024 it was much more pragmatic - motivated by a desire to eject the last government and to give another Party a chance.

More in Common’s Seven segments shine a further light on that shift - in 2019 the difference in Labour’s vote share between the most left leaning and conservative segments of the population was 58 points. By 2024 that gap had almost halved to just 27 points - with those on the right more likely to vote for Labour, and some segments on the left actually less likely to back Keir Starmer’s Party. The result is that Labour’s electoral coalition is broader but also shallower than in previous Parliaments. Add to that growing electoral volatility and it is clear that following previous governments in adopting a governing strategy built around partisan wedges is unlikely to provide a glue to keep this coalition together. Instead, the best way to maintain and grow the new Labour coalition - and more importantly to strengthen the faith in the ability of politics to deliver for ordinary people is through delivery on practical everyday improvements.

Delivering on the mandate for change

What does delivering on that practical mandate for change mean? First and foremost it means making people’s everyday less of a struggle. If the 8am rush for GP appointments persists, if people still feel they are working to live and living to work, if anti-social behaviour continues to render local parks and high streets unusable, if the immigration system feels disorderly and chaotic, and if energy bills remain high, then the public will remain disillusioned and will increasingly look elsewhere away from the mainstream offer of political parties.

Top of the list of the public’s practical expectations is the NHS. The struggles of the NHS in recent years, whether it be waiting lists, delays in being able to get an ambulance or the shortage of dentists have had a particularly corrosive effect on public morale. Why? First and foremost because the NHS is a service that the public rely on at their most vulnerable, when they or their loved ones are in need of help. But beyond that, the NHS has long been the most cherished and trusted of British institutions and, regardless of their own experience, seeing it struggling has undermined confidence in the state itself.

That is why almost two thirds of the public (63%) say it will be the measure through which they benchmark Labour’s success or failure - higher than any other measure. Bluntly put, waiting lists need to be lower and GP appointments more accessible soon. But voters also want to see significant progress in other areas too - particularly on the cost of living. In focus group after focus group, participants told us they were fed up of a situation where despite working hard, they had to put things back at the end of the weekly shop, to tell their kids they couldn’t go on holiday this year, or simply they ended the working month with nothing left over to show for it.

Beyond delivery, a politics of respect

Hand in hand with practical delivery, the change voters demanded at this election is rooted in a desire to see a return to the politics of respect. A politics where success is not equated with wealth or having a top degree, but is instead based on contribution and recognises the role of those - from hauliers to shop assistants - who really do keep the show on the road. More in Common’s research over the last year with the UCL Policy Lab has shown that political leaders ‘showing respect for ordinary people’ is actually ranked as highly as delivery or ‘getting stuff done’ in voters’ minds.

Not only that but new multilevel regression poststratification (MRP) analysis shows that such a politics of respect will be central to helping Labour build and maintain an enduring voter coalition and help it navigate the twin challenges of voter volatility and electoral fragmentation.

The MRP reveals that two areas that were fundamental to Labour’s electoral success - Scotland’s central belt and the Red Wall are far more likely than average to prioritise ‘showing respect for ordinary people’ as the key attribute they want to see in political leaders. Keir Starmer’s direct appeal of both respect and service resonated with these vital constituencies. The new political landscape means that as Labour grapples with difficult decisions in office it will not just face a challenge from the Conservative’s but also pressure from Reform on the Right and the Greens, SNP and Gaza independents on the left. Because of that, reconnecting with the public through a politics of respect offers a greater likelihood of being able to see off multiple threats to its electoral coalition, than a strategy more narrowly rooted in attacking the Conservative brand.

How have the government started on the politics of respect

In turning a respect agenda into a governing mantra, the first few months of the Starmer administration have seen mixed success - with a strong response to the riots on the one hand, but a less sure-footed and more narrowly tactically focused response to its fiscal inheritance on the other. For many, the riots were an anathema to the public’s notion of respect for their community and their neighbours. It is unsurprising then that the public backed the government’s tough response to handling them with a robust law and order approach. Sir Keir Starmer’s approval on handling of the riots jumped 11 points over the course of August, and sits much higher than his general approval rating. Quickly tackling the disorder with the rapid sentencing of rioters, alongside also focusing on the contribution of those involved in the community clean-up was the right one for the public and one which embodied the politics of respect.

The government’s approach on public finances has been less assured. The government’s change mandate is first and foremost to fix a country which feels broken to many - where the cost of living and energy bills are too high, waiting lists too long, and where anti-social behaviour and levels of immigration feel out of control. People voted to fix those things. While fixing the public finances is an important step towards achieving progress on those practical and policy objectives. it’s a means to an end for most voters, not an end in and of itself and certainly was not front of mind as people cast their ballots. This is 2024 not 2010 and concerns about the state of public services and fixing practical problems now trump concerns about the debt and deficit. Repeating the Coalition’s political playbook will not work in the same way for the new government.

This misreading of public opinion and the election result has shaped some early missteps on the government’s approach to fixing the public finances. The public want to be levelled with on the difficult decisions to come and don’t want the type of cakeism that builds up hopes only to let down the public again - the epitome of disrespect. But they also want to know what life will look like after that, how will their everyday feel better and how will life be less of a struggle.

They also want to know that contribution will be rewarded. Public opposition to the cut to pensioners’ winter fuel allowance reflects a broader frustration that ordinary people who have worked hard are not seeing their contributions to society valued and rewarded. Cutting winter fuel allowance for pensioners (bar those on pension credit) has been received by many pensioners as penalising those who’ve worked hard, saved and contributed to British society across many decades. The public recognise that the public finances need mending, but they want it done in a way that is fair and that respects their contribution. The fall out from the decision should act as a cautionary tale to the government as to how they can better deliver the politics of respect.

As the government navigates its first year in office, its success will be measured not just by fixing the country’s economic foundations or through more efficient delivery. But by how it meets the challenge that many people feel their lives have just become too difficult, and what it now does to make ordinary people feel heard, valued and respected in society. How well the government can translate that sentiment into how economic decisions are made, and how policy is designed and delivered will be the central test of this Parliament.