Multi-hazard Hurricane & Epidemic Risk Assessment in Dominica

Assessing the risks of hurricanes and the Covid-19 pandemic for a small Caribbean island developing state.

Project description

Dominica is a small island developing state (SIDS) with one of the lowest per capita gross domestic products in the eastern Caribbean. It is especially vulnerable to hurricanes, and associated flooding and landslides.

In 2017, the category 5 Hurricane Maria struck the island and caused losses of approximately US$930 million or 226% of GDP, damaged 90% of buildings and cost 65 lives*. Conversely Dominica has to date fared relatively well in health terms with the Covid-19 emergency. Like all countries, Dominica is facing choices with the need to strengthen Covid-19 preventative measures and disaster risk reduction. Such choices depend upon ranking and balancing relative risks.

This project aims to protect economic development and promote health and social welfare in Dominica through multi-criteria risk assessment. The project team developed a decision-making tool, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), within a Geographic Information System environment, to inform decision making and build resilience through understanding vulnerability of the local population and infrastructure.

The project employed both expert interviews and participatory research methods, holding two community workshops to incorporate local knowledge into the analysis and using local values and perceptions to inform decision making. The expert interviews covered a broad range of themes which involved people of different genders. The participatory workshops (built through the networks of our partners) were gender balanced and included gender disaggregated viewpoints.

Collaborations and partnerships in LMICs

The UCL team worked with the Dominica Red Cross and IsraAID (Dominica) on the project, soliciting both local expert opinion and local communities’ views to input into the decision-making process.

Local researchers and surveyors were trained also to facilitate vulnerability assessments from semi-structured interviews and two participatory community workshops (one rural, one urban) and their values, local knowledge and perceptions were used in the AHP model.

The semi-structured interview approach and the participatory workshop approach facilitated co-production of the research and policy recommendations with LMIC partners.

The benefits and impacts of the project activities to LMICs

To protect economic development and promote health and social welfare in Dominica through multi-criteria risk assessment the project:

• Used community workshops to impact awareness of resilience;
• Will launch a co-produced brief to inform policy makers and the community;
• Built capacity with collaborators, researchers and local surveyors;
• Built collaborative partnerships and networks.

Specific benefits and impacts include:

1. Robust scientific evidence base of hazard risks and vulnerability for Dominica
2. A multi-criteria decision-making support tool
3. Brief for policy makers.