XClose

UCL Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction

Menu

AGILE – AGnostic Risk management for High Impact Low Probability Events

The AGILE project contributes to a safer and more secure future by improving societal resilience and mitigating the impact of High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events.

Simple, colourful project logo, reading: 'agile' in a dynamic rounded font, all lowercase. The letter 'a' is in white inside a stylised orange jellyfish with lilac tentacles, 'gile' is in purple with a cartoon bubble as the tittle for the letter 'i'.

8 August 2024

The challenge

According to the European Commission, HILPs are described as “events or occurrences that cannot easily be anticipated, arise randomly and unexpectedly, and have immediate effects and significant impacts”. AGILE aims to revolutionise the preparation and management of HILP events. By identifying common points of failure across different threats, we seek to enhance the system’s capacity to handle complex crises. 

Difficulties in predicting HILP events limitthe value of risk assessments. However, building system resilience can provide value by allowing faster recovery and adaptation after system disruptions, whether predicted or not. Although the concepts of vulnerability, risk, and resilience are all informative; in the event of an actual disruptive event, resilience will be most influential in determining the system’s future because resilience sets its trajectory for recovery. Thus, AGILE will develop and apply a new stress testing methodology that could enhance system-wide resilience. 

Leveraging its unique position as a practitioner-led consortium with a global network, AGILE aims to ensure the uptake of research and innovation results within practitioner organisations and policy-making bodies.

AGILE brings together a trans-disciplinary consortium comprising research organisations, NGOs, SMEs, first responders and local/regional authorities to design, develop, and apply a comprehensive methodological framework and practical tools for understanding, anticipating, and managing HILP events.

Expected impact

AGILE envisions a world where risk management is not only based on well-characterised threats but also includes a systemic, risk-agnostic perspective. Our vision is to provide stakeholders with the tools and knowledge needed to meet the challenges posed by HILP events confidently. The project will combine and integrate a wide range of established and innovative methodologies into a novel and replicable multi-sectoral risk and resilience stress testing methodology to better UNDERSTAND, ANTICIPATE and MANAGE HILP events.

This will be achieved through four complimentary objectives:

  • To conceptualise and analyse HILP events, creating a knowledge base for implementation in Disaster Risk Management. 
  • Co-develop a scalable methodology for stress testing (ST). 
  • Enable European and international DRM practitioners to identify common points of failures in typical HILP risk patterns through the implementation and evaluation of tiered risk and resilience STs. 
  • Improve the societal resilience towards HILP risks through novel and evidence-based planning, capacity building and communication approaches.

Funding details

£664,034 – Project funded by the European Union’s Horizon Europe and the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) programme

Project duration

48 months from October 2023 – September 2027

Project team

  • Dr Gianluca Pescaroli (PI and Scientific Lead)

Project coordinator and co-applicants:

  • Prof Mark Pelling (co/I)
  • Dr Bayes Ahmed (co/I)
  • Prof Alexander David
  • Prof Maureen Fordham
  • Dr Sarah Dryhurst
  • Dr Saman Ghaffarian

Further information