Close
Decoding the 2024 U.S. Election: What’s Next for Policy, Democracy, and the Republican Party?
14 November 2024
Following the U.S. elections, 'UCL Uncovering Politics' dives into what Trump’s sweeping win means for policy shifts, democracy, and the evolving GOP. With insights from experts Dr Julie Norman and Dr Thomas Gift.
Following the recent U.S. elections, a new episode of the UCL Uncovering Politics podcast brings insights from Dr Julie Norman, Associate Professor in Politics and International Relations, and Dr Thomas Gift, Associate Professor in Political Science. Together, they unpack the implications of Donald Trump and the Republican Party’s sweeping victory, exploring key policy predictions, the future of American democracy, and the evolving shape of the Republican electorate.
Here’s a closer look at the main takeaways and what they could mean for the U.S. and the world.
- Listen to the episode on your favourite podcast platform -
Policy Predictions: Bold Shifts at Home and Abroad
With Republicans now in control of the presidency, Senate, and House, the U.S. is set for dramatic changes in both domestic and foreign policy, aligning them with Trump’s “America First” view which has consistently prioritised U.S. domestic concerns over international commitments. However, it must be noted that Trump has always been an unpredictable figure, so we can expect to be surprised over the next four years.
Trump’s approach to Ukraine suggests a pivot away from continued military support. He has hinted at pursuing a swift resolution, likely involving pressure on Ukraine to make concessions that favour Russia. A similar approach is expected in the Middle East, where Trump is likely to give Israel wider latitude in its military policies, including potential support for controversial annexation efforts in Gaza and the West Bank—a shift that could weaken the longstanding two-state solution supported by past administrations.
Looking towards China and the rest of the world, Trump appears poised to reintroduce or even increase tariffs sparking potential trade tensions. This appears at odds with voters’ concerns about inflation, as tariffs typically lead to higher consumer prices.
His domestic agenda will, of course, feature efforts to limit immigration while prioritising investments in border security. Although mass deportations are likely unrealistic, Trump’s stance on immigration underscores his commitment to keeping this issue at the centre of his policy agenda.
On climate, Trump is expected to dismantle many of the Biden administration’s regulations, particularly those imposed by the Environmental Protection Agency, and may pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement once more. His budget will likely reflect minimal investment in green energy, favouring fossil fuels instead, marking a clear reversal from the Biden administration’s climate priorities.
The Future of American Democracy
Trump’s re-election has stirred debate around the resilience of U.S. democratic institutions. While American democracy remains robust in procedural terms, Trump’s style of populism challenges democratic norms, with his base rallying behind his “outsider” stance. The Republican-backed 'Project 2025' may serve as a blueprint for some of Trump’s administration goals, such as consolidating certain powers under executive control. Observers warn that these proposals could reduce checks and balances within government.
Though procedural democracy in the U.S. is not at immediate risk, Trump’s presidency may increase tension between strong centralised authority and longstanding democratic traditions. How this plays out will be a central question in U.S. politics in the coming years.
The New Shape of the Republican Electorate
One of the most significant trends revealed by the 2024 election is the changing shape of the Republican base. Traditionally the party of the middle class and suburban voters, the GOP is now building a coalition of working-class Americans, including an increasing number of minority voters. Trump’s focus on “kitchen table” issues such as economic stability and inflation, alongside his rejection of progressive cultural policies, has widened the Republican Party’s appeal to a broader demographic.
This transformation is also part of a global trend of “anti-incumbent” sentiment. The Republican Party’s success in attracting disaffected working-class voters highlights an area of vulnerability for the Democrats. Many of these voters were once considered secure within the Democrats’ base, but are shifting to the Republican Party as it aligns more closely with their economic concerns and values. While moderate Republicans and traditional conservatives remain, they face a shrinking role as Trump’s populist style becomes the party’s defining identity.
For Democrats, the election has exposed a need to prioritise economic issues that resonate more strongly with working-class Americans. Meanwhile, the Republican Party’s new coalition of conservative, populist, and minority voters will challenge the party to balance these varying priorities.
Looking Ahead
As the dust settles, the implications of this election are clear. U.S. policy is set for a significant shift, both domestically and internationally. Trump’s approach to Ukraine, climate policy, and trade will likely reshape U.S. alliances and impact global stability. Domestically, the Republican Party is now more decisively the party of the working class, with issues like immigration and economic populism driving its agenda.
For the Democrats, this election is a wake-up call. Addressing the concerns of the working class may be essential for future success. Meanwhile, the GOP will need to carefully navigate the priorities of its new coalition as Trump continues to push boundaries in American politics.
The 2024 election marks more than just a victory for Trump; it signals a pivotal moment in American politics, one that could redefine the country’s policy and ideological landscape for years to come.
Quick links:
UCL Centre on US Politics (CUSP) website
CUSP on X
